Sunday, August 20, 2017

Weak Data Sinks Dollar But Floats Stocks


More weak economic data today sent the U.S. stock market to record highs; at least the Dow and the S&P hit new records. NASDAQ not quite, but very close. The dollar hit a new low for the year. The dollar index, settling in at 95.10, right on the low for the day. That’s down .63. Some of the other currencies are strong. 

Aussie Dollar Strong 

The Aussie dollar was up about 1.3% on the day; one of the strongest of the currencies today. The Aussie dollar is very close to a 2-year high. The Canadian dollar was very strong this week on the back of a rate increase by the Bank of Canada. But the dollar falling across the board. 

Foreign Stock Gain 

Foreign stocks did better than U.S stocks, given their tailwind from appreciating currencies. Gold prices were up just over $11. Given the weakness in the dollar and the weak economic data, gold should be moving up a lot more than it is; I still think there is still a lot of short selling going on, but I smell the mother of all short squeezes coming. Silver is up about .30; back up to $16. remember was a low as $15.10 earlier in the week. 

Dollar Index Weakening 

The dollar index index at 95.10, just down over 7% on the year. It ended last year just above 1.02. In fact, in January, hit almost 1.04, so we’re down 8-1/2% since the January high, and the year is only half over. So I think there is a lot more momentum coming, especially in light of the economic data I’m about to get to. 

Retail Sales Disappoint 

The big report was the Retail Sales numbers, were supposed to bounce back from May’s -.3, and they did manage to revise that to down only .1%;but instead of getting a .1% rebound we had another drop. We had -.2% in June, so that is back-to back declines. In fact that is 3 consecutive months of falling retail sales. The picture gets worse when you strip out car autos. Last month, we got -.3%. That was unrevised. They were looking for June to be +.2% – instead we were down another .2%. And if you strip out gasoline, it’s even worse than that. They were looking for +4% and we got -.1%. So very very weak retail sales. This was supposed to be the quarter of the big bounce back! How are we going to bounce back in GDP without retail sales? 

Consumer Prices Weaker 

We also got consumer prices that actually came out weaker than expected. That is supposedly bad news, the way the Fed spins it, because the Fed’s trying to get higher inflation, at least the way the CPI measures it. They were supposed to get an increase of .1% for consumer prices following last month’s .1% decline and instead we came in unchanged. Year over year CPI, up 1.6% vs an estimate of 1.7%, and core, stripping out food and energy, they were looking for +.2%. instead we were up .1% 

Janet Yellen Wants More Inflation 

So when Janet Yellen testified before Congress earlier in the week, the only thing she expressed concern about is that inflation is not high enough. She does not seem concerned at all about the weakness in the economy.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Dollar Falls as Balance Sheet Shrinkage Doubts Rise


The Dow and the NASDAQ set new record highs today as the dollar sold off near the end of the day to close at yet another low for the year. Remember, the dollar index rallied 6% between the election and the Trump inauguration. It has now fallen more than 10% since inauguration. Many currencies are at two-year highs. The Australian dollar is at a 2-year high, certain commodities are at a 2-year high, copper broke to a 2-year high; oil prices have been strong. Oil was up about $.80 today after being up about $2 yesterday. We’re now above $48.50. Getting close to $50/barrel again. 

Federal Reserve: “No Hike” 

One of the reasons for the strength in commodities is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The catalyst for the weakness in the dollar today is the Federal Reserve, the FOMC, concluded their 2-day meeting today; their press release came out at 2.30pm ET and they announced that they did not decide to raise interest rates during this meeting. Nobody expected the Fed to raise interest rates, which is one of the reasons why they didn’t. 

Balance Sheet Normalization? 

There was some anticipation that the Federal Reserve may be more specific concerning when it might start quantitative tightening or ‘balance sheet normalization’ as they call it. So people wanted to know when that would start, and by how much are they going to let their balance sheet to run down but the Fed did not allude to any specifics. All they said is that the process will begin relatively soon. Now the last time they put out a statement, they said it would begin this year. Now they are saying it will begin ‘Relatively soon’. Why didn’t they leave it at “this year”? Because “this year” would be within the next six months. “Relatively Soon” leaves the statement comfortably vague enough to fit within the Fed’s slippery parameters. 

Gold Hanging In There 

The markets didn’t know what to do for the first half hour, but eventually the dollar broke, and gold finally popped up; it was up around $11-12. It was about unchanged going into the announcement and the knee-jerk reaction was a $2-3 selloff, then it came back to unchanged and then we had the rally. Gold stocks had a pretty good day today; the GDX up about 2.5%; the junior minors doing a little bit better. Yet these stocks have barely moved this year, but this is just getting started.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Monday, August 14, 2017

Peter Schiff Talks Copper vs Gold as an Investment


How does copper compare to gold as an investment? Peter Schiff examines and determines where is the best place to park your money in the short term.


Monday, August 7, 2017

Peter Schiff: “Markets Getting Plastered & Throwing Up In the Toilet Bowl”


Dollar Bulls will be feeling green, and Gold & Silver Bulls will be seeing green with what he said next…

Peter Schiff tells X22 Report the next crisis is coming, and it’s coming right to the US Dollar. In Peter’s own words, after this party, the markets are about to have a massive “hangover”.

Peter provides his latest analysis on gold, silver, the precious metals, the Fed, and the fiat dollar currency crisis that follows after too much of a good time.

- Source, X22 Report

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