The way Schiff sees it, either the Fed stops QE and starts selling the Treasurys and mortgage-related assets on its balance sheet, thus triggering a recession, or else faces an inevitable, even-worse, currency crisis.
“I am 100% confident that the crisis that we’re going to have will be much worse than the one we had in 2008,” Schiff said in an interview.
Schiff is dismissive of the general sense that the pace of the U.S. recovery is picking up.
“The whole idea that the U.S. economy is recovery is based entirely on rising asset prices,” Schiff said.
Asset prices are only rising because rates are low. As soon as rates go back up, asset prices will come back down, he argued.
While economic growth rebounded in the first quarter to a 2.4% annual rate after a dismal fourth quarter, the savings rate dropped and disposable income also declined, he noted.
“Incomes are declining, savings are being depleted, those aren’t good signs,” Schiff said.
Schiff just scoffs at suggestions the economy faces the threat of deflation. Indeed, he suggest that the government is deliberately under-reporting inflation.
“All of the things we buy are getting expensive,” he said.
Talk of deflation is just a way for the Fed to win support for higher inflation needed to inflate debt burdens away, he said.
- Source, Gregg Robb of Capital Report: