Saturday, August 18, 2018

Peter Schiff: Mainstream View on Trade Dangerously Wrong

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Heading Toward A Bigger Crisis And The Same People Are Even More Clueless

As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, some things don't seem a whole lot different. Everybody is optimistic, and as Peter Schiff noted in his most recent podcast, ignoring all of the warning signs.

"We're seeing a lot of warning signs people should be worried about, but again they're dismissing them, much the way they did 10 years ago You know, we're getting close to the 10-year anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis. Remember, the whole thing started in August of 2008. Here we are August 2018, 10 years later. I think we're heading for an even bigger crisis and the same people are even more clueless."

Peter said there is a lot of data that is being ignored or glossed over. For instance, the July jobs numbers came in much lower than expected at 157,000.

"When they look at this big decline month-over-month in job creation, nobody seems to think it's a problem, because everybody wants to look at the economic glass as half-full."

Average hourly wages rose 0.3, which was the expectation, but last month's number originally reported as up 0.2 was revised to -0.1.

"And for all we know, the 0.3 we just got could be downwardly revised next month. But if you take the average hourly earnings numbers at face value and look at the year-over-year increase, the gain is 2.7%. That's how much nominal wages have gone up over the past year. And that includes, of course, all of these minimum wage hikes."

Meanwhile, the CPI has gone up 2.9% during the same period. Peter said he doesn't think the CPI accurately measures the real increase in the cost of living, but even if it did, wages still aren't keeping up with prices.

"Real wages, despite the 2.7% increase, real wages are actually down during that year. In fact, this is the biggest drop in real wages in six years. Now to hear Donald Trump talk, or anybody else talk, real wages are soaring, right? Everybody is getting a raise. They're not. Inflation - consumer prices are rising faster than wages."

- Source, Seeking Alpha 

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Joe Rogan Experience #1145 - Peter Schiff


Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. 

He also hosts his own podcast called “The Peter Schiff Podcast” available on iTunes and at SchiffRadio.com

- Source, Joe Rogan

Sunday, August 5, 2018

Peter Schiff: Could the Trade War Prick the Bubble Economy?


There was a lot of trade war talk at the end of last week. In fact, on Friday, some pundits said the trade war officially began. Last Thursday, President Trump said the US may ultimately impose tariffs on more than a half-trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese goods, and a round of tariffs went into effect. 

The United States began collecting tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China implemented additional tariffs on some import products from the United States immediately after US tariffs took effect, according to Chinese state media.

The stock markets shrugged it off. Both the NASDAQ and Dow were up over 100 points. In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said the markets seemed to be saying, “Who cares about a trade war? Bring it on!”

- Source, Schiff Gold

Thursday, August 2, 2018

The MSM Isn't Paying Attention to the Hidden, Rising Inflation Threat


Of course, it’s not really going to be Trump’s fault. But that’s the way the political class plays the game. Whoever happens to be in office when things go south gets the blame. But the real culprits are the central bankers.

Stagflation is a combination of high inflation and negative economic growth. We saw it under Carter, and Peter thinks we’ll see it again as the Trump administration progresses.

Peter has been talking a lot about inflation in both the eurozone and the US, but the mainstream isn’t paying a bit of attention...

- Source, Schiff Gold

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Peter Schiff Digs Down To The Root Cause Of The Trade Deficit Problem

In last Friday's podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the potential impact of the trade war, arguing it could prick the US bubble economy. As a follow-up, in his latest podcast, Peter talked more about why a trade war could be worse for the US economy than most pundits seem to think, and he dug down to the root cause of the trade deficit.

The bottom line is slapping tariffs on Chinese imports isn't going to solve the problem.

The Trump administration raised the stakes in the trade war again this week, threatening 10% tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. According to Seeking Alpha, the new list appears to target Beijing's important manufacturing export industries, going after electronics, textiles, metal components and auto parts. Food and personal sectors will also be affected, along with beauty goods and makeup products.

China's commerce ministry said it was "shocked" by the latest US actions and called them "completely unacceptable." It plans to complain to the World Trade Organization. The Chinese also vowed to retaliate with a "combination of quantitative and qualitative measures."

The US mainstream doesn't seem particularly concerned about the trade war. A Reuters headline Tuesday proclaimed "Dollar strengthens as trade war fears fade, risk appetite returns."

As Peter Schiff pointed out in his latest podcast, a lot of American analysts seem to think the trade war won't have much impact because "the economy is strong." They argue that we couldn't have done this when Obama was president, but now that the economy is humming, we can afford to get our house in order and deal with the trade situation. Peter called this "utter nonsense."

We don't have a great economy. We have the same economy we had under Obama."

Peter underscored the point by citing GDP and jobs data then and now.

Those who say we don't need to worry about a trade war also cite the fact that imports only makes up about 15% of US GDP. As Peter says, that's a pretty significant chunk of the economy. You can't just dismiss that. And regardless, you can't just look at the direct impact a trade war will have on imports. You also have to consider the ripple effect.

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Monday, July 23, 2018

Peter Schiff: Stagflation Is Coming

The Dow Jones was up Friday, avoiding it ninth consecutive down day. As Peter Schiff noted on his most recent podcast, such a long stretch of declines is pretty rare. Eight straight down days has only happened 43 times since the Dow launched in 1896. The last time we had nine straight days of Dow Jones decline, Jimmy Carter was president.

Peter said this is a little ironic because he sees another Carter-era phenomenon on the horizon - stagflation.

As a result, he thinks Trump is going to do for the Democrats what Carter did for the Republicans.

"The conservatives rode to power because of the problems that were blamed on Carter. Well, the socialists are going to rise to power in America based on the problems that are going to be blamed on Trump."

Of course, it's not really going to be Trump's fault. But that's the way the political class plays the game. Whoever happens to be in office when things go south gets the blame. But the real culprits are the central bankers.

Stagflation is a combination of high inflation and negative economic growth. We saw it under Carter, and Peter thinks we'll see it again as the Trump administration progresses.

Peter has been talking a lot about inflation in both the eurozone and the US, but the mainstream isn't paying a bit of attention.

"Inflation, of course, is not just going to be a problem in the eurozone. It is going to be a bigger problem in the United States. I think the difference is while the Europeans are going to ultimately raise interest rates to fight their inflation, especially since there's going to be a lot of pressure from the Bundesbank on the ECB to do that, the United States is just going to surrender. 

We're not even going to bother to battle inflation because there's no way we can win. And so inflation is going to be a bigger problem here in that it's going to get even more out of control in the eurozone. But it is going to do damage worldwide, and it's amazing that you have such a massive inflationary threat looming on the horizon and as far as the central banks are concerned, the possibility of that isn't even something they can imagine."

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Peter Schiff Explains Why Sagging Productivity Is Bad News For Your Pocketbook

US productivity numbers for the first quarter of this year were disappointing, to say the least. Analysts expected Q1 productivity to rise by point 0.7%. Instead, it came in at nearly half that, rising by 0.4%. This was only a slight improvement over the 0.3% increase in the final quarter of 2017.

There wasn't a whole lot of chatter about sluggish productivity in the mainstream financial press, but in his recent podcast, Peter Schiff pointed out that it could have significant ramifications for the economy - and on your pocketbook. If you're counting on productivity to keep a lid on consumer prices, you have a big problem.

"That is the only way to keep prices from rising when you're creating all of this money is to have an increase in productivity."

As Peter pointed out, rising productivity doesn't prevent inflation. It merely masks it. Most Americans don't understand what inflation actually is. In fact, the mainstream has effectively redefined the term, as Ron Paul explained during an episode of his Liberty Report. Peter provided a succinct explanation of inflation during his podcast.

"Remember, a lot of people think that inflation is what happens to prices. It's not. Inflation is what happens to money. That's where the word comes from. Inflate means to expand and prices don't expand. Prices go up, prices go down. What expands? The money supply. It expands during inflation, it contracts during deflation. A result of an expansion of the money supply inflation is that prices tend to rise. But they might not rise. If productivity is rising faster, prices might not go up at all."

So, even if increasing productivity keeps prices from rising as fast as they would during an inflationary period, it still harms consumers because they could have benefited from even lower prices.

"If inflation robs you from the benefit of increased productivity, that's still an inflation tax. This is still harming the economy. But the modern day bankers and Wall Street - everybody - they're only worried about inflation if it makes prices go up, not if it prevents them from going down, although now they actually want inflation to make prices go up. They just don't want inflation to make prices go up too much. In fact, if inflation doesn't make prices go up enough, that is supposedly a problem, right? Inflation is too low. That's what's been fueling a lot of the monetary policy."

- Source, Seeking Alpha