- Source, EuroPacMetals.com:
Monday, December 30, 2013
Peter Schiff - Bitcoin vs Gold
Saturday, December 28, 2013
The FED is Artificially Boosting the Stock Market
We will go a lot lower than that if the Fed moves away the monetary props. See, the problem for the economy is what the Fed is doing to goose the stock market and the housing market is actually hurting the real economy. It's preventing it from restructuring in a positive way that would produce genuine economic growth and prosperity that would be enjoyed by everyone.
- Source, Peter Schiff via
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Janet Yellen's Mission Impossible
Most market watchers expect that Janet Yellen will grapple with two major tasks once she takes the helm at the Federal Reserve in 2014: deciding on the appropriate timing and intensity of the Fed's quantitative easing taper strategy, and unwinding the Fed's enormous $4 trillion balance sheet (without creating huge losses in the value of its portfolio). In reality both assignments are far more difficult than just about anyone understands or admits.
Unlike just about every other economist, I knew that the Fed would not taper in September because the economy is still fundamentally addicted to stimulus. The signs of recovery that have caused investors and politicians to bubble with enthusiasm are just QE in disguise. Take away the QE and the economy would likely tilt back into an even more severe recession than the one we experienced before QE1 was launched
Given the Fed's failure to initiate a tapering campaign in recent months (when it was highly expected) it is surprising that most people still believe that it will pull the trigger in the first quarter of 2014. But if the Fed could not take action in September, with Ben Bernanke at the helm and the nation as yet untraumatized by the debt ceiling drama and Obamacare, why should we expect tougher treatment from Janet Yellen? This is particularly true when you consider Yellen's reputation as an extreme dove and the uninspiring economic data that has come in recent months.
Rather than explicitly describing the possibility of a reduction of asset purchases, recent Fed statements have merely said that policy would be "adjusted" according to incoming data. It has never said what direction that adjustment may take. Yet somehow the market has concluded that an imminent reduction is the only possibility. But the opposite conclusion is more likely. Recession avoidance is really the Fed's only concern and it will always come down on the side of accommodation. Therefore an expectation for a 2014 taper is just wishful thinking.
But that does not mean that QE will go on forever. It will come to an end, but not because the Fed wants it to, but because the currency markets give it no choice. A dollar crisis would ultimately force the Fed's hand, and the longer the Fed succeeds in postponing the inevitable, the more damage its policy mistakes will inflict on our economy.
Yellen's second task will be equally impossible. Since the QE campaign began in 2010 the Fed has more than quadrupled the amount of bonds that it holds on its balance sheet,to more than $4 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds. To accumulate this massive cache, the Fed has become by far the largest buyer in both markets. Its purchases have pushed up the prices of those bonds and have kept long term interest rates low for both consumers and businesses.
When the QE was first launched, Ben Bernanke tamped down fears of the program by saying the Fed would one day sell the bonds that it was buying. But as the Fed's balance sheet ballooned, many in the market began fearing that the unwinding of these trades would crush the market for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Bernanke soon allayed these fears by saying that the Fed would not actively sell, but would simply allow bonds to mature. But this is just a convenient fiction.
If stock or real estate prices were to enter into bubble territory (which I believe has already happened), or if inflation were ever to surge past the Fed's low target range (which I believe is certain to happen), then the Fed would have to sell bonds to get in front of these trends.
Through Operation Twist, the Fed has already swapped a very large portion of its short-term bonds for long-term bonds. The slow process of waiting for bonds to mature is unlikely to slow down asset bubbles or inflation. The argument also does not account for the fact that the Treasury will have to sell new bonds in order to retire the principle on the maturing bonds. Since the Fed is the primary buyer of Treasury bonds, the Fed would have to add to its balance sheet when it's trying to shrink it. Such a cycle is just a debt rollover that leaves the size of the Fed's balance sheet unchanged.
Unless other buyers of Treasuries or MBS can be found to replace the Fed's prodigious buying, the Fed will remain the only game in town. Given these realities, how can we possibly expect Janet Yellen to actually diminish the amount of assets the Fed holds? She won't be able to do it and any expectations to the contrary are pure fantasy.
So we should not be asking when Ms. Yellen will begin withdrawing stimulus and shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Instead we should be asking how the markets will react when she runs out of excuses for delaying the taper, or ultimately decides to expand QE rather than contract it.
Unlike just about every other economist, I knew that the Fed would not taper in September because the economy is still fundamentally addicted to stimulus. The signs of recovery that have caused investors and politicians to bubble with enthusiasm are just QE in disguise. Take away the QE and the economy would likely tilt back into an even more severe recession than the one we experienced before QE1 was launched
Given the Fed's failure to initiate a tapering campaign in recent months (when it was highly expected) it is surprising that most people still believe that it will pull the trigger in the first quarter of 2014. But if the Fed could not take action in September, with Ben Bernanke at the helm and the nation as yet untraumatized by the debt ceiling drama and Obamacare, why should we expect tougher treatment from Janet Yellen? This is particularly true when you consider Yellen's reputation as an extreme dove and the uninspiring economic data that has come in recent months.
Rather than explicitly describing the possibility of a reduction of asset purchases, recent Fed statements have merely said that policy would be "adjusted" according to incoming data. It has never said what direction that adjustment may take. Yet somehow the market has concluded that an imminent reduction is the only possibility. But the opposite conclusion is more likely. Recession avoidance is really the Fed's only concern and it will always come down on the side of accommodation. Therefore an expectation for a 2014 taper is just wishful thinking.
But that does not mean that QE will go on forever. It will come to an end, but not because the Fed wants it to, but because the currency markets give it no choice. A dollar crisis would ultimately force the Fed's hand, and the longer the Fed succeeds in postponing the inevitable, the more damage its policy mistakes will inflict on our economy.
Yellen's second task will be equally impossible. Since the QE campaign began in 2010 the Fed has more than quadrupled the amount of bonds that it holds on its balance sheet,to more than $4 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds. To accumulate this massive cache, the Fed has become by far the largest buyer in both markets. Its purchases have pushed up the prices of those bonds and have kept long term interest rates low for both consumers and businesses.
When the QE was first launched, Ben Bernanke tamped down fears of the program by saying the Fed would one day sell the bonds that it was buying. But as the Fed's balance sheet ballooned, many in the market began fearing that the unwinding of these trades would crush the market for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Bernanke soon allayed these fears by saying that the Fed would not actively sell, but would simply allow bonds to mature. But this is just a convenient fiction.
If stock or real estate prices were to enter into bubble territory (which I believe has already happened), or if inflation were ever to surge past the Fed's low target range (which I believe is certain to happen), then the Fed would have to sell bonds to get in front of these trends.
Through Operation Twist, the Fed has already swapped a very large portion of its short-term bonds for long-term bonds. The slow process of waiting for bonds to mature is unlikely to slow down asset bubbles or inflation. The argument also does not account for the fact that the Treasury will have to sell new bonds in order to retire the principle on the maturing bonds. Since the Fed is the primary buyer of Treasury bonds, the Fed would have to add to its balance sheet when it's trying to shrink it. Such a cycle is just a debt rollover that leaves the size of the Fed's balance sheet unchanged.
Unless other buyers of Treasuries or MBS can be found to replace the Fed's prodigious buying, the Fed will remain the only game in town. Given these realities, how can we possibly expect Janet Yellen to actually diminish the amount of assets the Fed holds? She won't be able to do it and any expectations to the contrary are pure fantasy.
So we should not be asking when Ms. Yellen will begin withdrawing stimulus and shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Instead we should be asking how the markets will react when she runs out of excuses for delaying the taper, or ultimately decides to expand QE rather than contract it.
- Source:
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
A River of Gold from West to East
Asia's love affair with gold became worldwide news when the price of the yellow metal dropped last April. Asian consumers saw the price drop as a fortunate buying opportunity, and metals dealers were swamped with orders for both bullion and jewelry. Premiums skyrocketed across the continent, but this did not slow demand.
With all this demand, shouldn't gold's global spot price have continued rising? Unfortunately, many Westerners were selling into the Eastern demand. In fact, the stagnant spot price concealed a historic transfer of real wealth.
The rising price of gold over the past decade had lured many Western investors into the paper gold market through precious metals exchange-traded funds (ETFs). To ETF investors intent on fast growth rather than long-term capital preservation, the recent drop in price was viewed as a sell signal, not an opportunity.
By the end of September, gold ETFs had sold off about 700 metric tons of physical gold - more than half of it in just the second quarter. The World Gold Council reports that the majority of these outflows have been absorbed by Asian demand.
However, Western selling was enough to keep the global spot price from recovering. Instead of more capital flowing into gold, it was the gold itself which was flowing from Western financial institutions to Eastern households.
The latest data shows that consumer demand for physical gold in the first three quarters of 2013 hit a historical record of 2,896.5 metric tons. 90% of the year-over-year increase in this demand came from Asia and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Americans have been distracted by one record high after another in the domestic stock market.
With all this demand, shouldn't gold's global spot price have continued rising? Unfortunately, many Westerners were selling into the Eastern demand. In fact, the stagnant spot price concealed a historic transfer of real wealth.
The rising price of gold over the past decade had lured many Western investors into the paper gold market through precious metals exchange-traded funds (ETFs). To ETF investors intent on fast growth rather than long-term capital preservation, the recent drop in price was viewed as a sell signal, not an opportunity.
By the end of September, gold ETFs had sold off about 700 metric tons of physical gold - more than half of it in just the second quarter. The World Gold Council reports that the majority of these outflows have been absorbed by Asian demand.
However, Western selling was enough to keep the global spot price from recovering. Instead of more capital flowing into gold, it was the gold itself which was flowing from Western financial institutions to Eastern households.
The latest data shows that consumer demand for physical gold in the first three quarters of 2013 hit a historical record of 2,896.5 metric tons. 90% of the year-over-year increase in this demand came from Asia and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Americans have been distracted by one record high after another in the domestic stock market.
- Source, Schiff Radio:
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Peter Schiff on Gold Seek Radio
- Source, Gold Seek Radio:
Friday, December 20, 2013
Bitcoin is in a Tulip Mania Bubble
On Tuesday's "Squawk Box," Cameron Winklevoss said that "some definitely view it as gold 2.0," adding, "In terms of a store of value, it definitely has the properties of gold, and people are viewing it that way."
But on the Tuesday episode of "Futures Now." Schiff, a longtime investor in gold, literally laughed at the comparison.
"I don't see bitcoins as an alternative to gold," he said. "If anything, [the creators of bitcoin are] modern-day alchemists, but you can't make gold digitally. It's no better than a fiat currency."
Schiff said that what he does see in the peer-to-peer currency—whose value has risen from $13.50 in January to $375 on Tuesday—is a bubble.
"To me, it looks like a modern-day tulip mania," Schiff said, referring to the fantastic rise and fall of the value of tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland. "The reason people are buying bitcoins is because they think they're going to make money. They think the price is going up. And the price probably will go up. It'll keep going up until it implodes. And a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in bitcoins."
Schiff scoffs at the idea that the bitcoin will become a common unit of online exchange.
"I don't think it's going to end up being a source of commerce for the world," he said. "I think right now it's a source of gambling."
But on the Tuesday episode of "Futures Now." Schiff, a longtime investor in gold, literally laughed at the comparison.
"I don't see bitcoins as an alternative to gold," he said. "If anything, [the creators of bitcoin are] modern-day alchemists, but you can't make gold digitally. It's no better than a fiat currency."
Schiff said that what he does see in the peer-to-peer currency—whose value has risen from $13.50 in January to $375 on Tuesday—is a bubble.
"To me, it looks like a modern-day tulip mania," Schiff said, referring to the fantastic rise and fall of the value of tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland. "The reason people are buying bitcoins is because they think they're going to make money. They think the price is going up. And the price probably will go up. It'll keep going up until it implodes. And a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in bitcoins."
Schiff scoffs at the idea that the bitcoin will become a common unit of online exchange.
"I don't think it's going to end up being a source of commerce for the world," he said. "I think right now it's a source of gambling."
- Source, CNBC:
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
While the Fed Talks Taper, China Prepares to Actually Do It!
- Source the Schiff Report:
Monday, December 16, 2013
Governments Intervene
When reporting on Asian gold demand, the Western media tends to focus on nations like India, which has practically declared war against gold buyers this year in a misguided attempt to curb its trade deficit.
The Indian government raised tariffs on the metal to a record 10%, and now requires importers to re-export 20% of their gold. India's central bank even went as far as asking temples around the country to divulge how much gold they were storing, though many refused.
Thailand and Vietnam have taken similar steps to subdue their populations' gold demand, even though the primary outcome has been to increase gold smuggling.
These governments' measures have received the most attention because they fit nicely into the Western narrative that gold is an old-fashioned asset that does more harm than good in modern economies. But the truth is that the only ones harmed by gold are Western governments!
The Indian government raised tariffs on the metal to a record 10%, and now requires importers to re-export 20% of their gold. India's central bank even went as far as asking temples around the country to divulge how much gold they were storing, though many refused.
Thailand and Vietnam have taken similar steps to subdue their populations' gold demand, even though the primary outcome has been to increase gold smuggling.
These governments' measures have received the most attention because they fit nicely into the Western narrative that gold is an old-fashioned asset that does more harm than good in modern economies. But the truth is that the only ones harmed by gold are Western governments!
- Source, Schiff Radio:
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Dow will crash below 13,000
- Source, CNN:
Friday, December 13, 2013
A Rude Awakening
This is the time when the West realizes that its great reservoir of wealth has run dry, as the gold has all flowed East.
When China stops buying US Treasuries, the Fed will remain the only major buyer of US debt. This will drive interest rates up, thereby sticking the US government with obligations it cannot possibly fulfill. Ultimately, this will be the death knell for the dollar, as the Fed will be forced to significantly expand its QE program to assume the role as Treasury-buyer of last resort.
Mom-and-pop gold buyers throughout the East probably do not understand all the subtleties of the foreign exchange markets, but an undying appreciation for gold is built into their culture. Make no mistake: the East is the engine of the 21st century global economy - and it is riding on rails of gold.
This holiday season, consider breaking with our recent Western tradition of giving gifts of no enduring value. Instead, take the opportunity to turn some of your paper dollars into gifts that will still have value when your kids are grown.
When China stops buying US Treasuries, the Fed will remain the only major buyer of US debt. This will drive interest rates up, thereby sticking the US government with obligations it cannot possibly fulfill. Ultimately, this will be the death knell for the dollar, as the Fed will be forced to significantly expand its QE program to assume the role as Treasury-buyer of last resort.
Mom-and-pop gold buyers throughout the East probably do not understand all the subtleties of the foreign exchange markets, but an undying appreciation for gold is built into their culture. Make no mistake: the East is the engine of the 21st century global economy - and it is riding on rails of gold.
This holiday season, consider breaking with our recent Western tradition of giving gifts of no enduring value. Instead, take the opportunity to turn some of your paper dollars into gifts that will still have value when your kids are grown.
- Source, Schiff Radio:
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Gold The Bedrock of Savings Plans
"Having replaced savings with debt on both the national and individual levels, I think it's well past time for Westerners to take a few lessons from our creditors in the East. Many Americans consider gold a "barbarous relic," but in Asia, the yellow metal remains the bedrock of individual savings plans. This means that either greater than half of the world's population are barbarians, or they've held onto an important tradition that our culture has forgotten."
- Source, Schiff Radio:
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Peter Schiff - Bitcoin Is NOT Gold
- Source, CNBC:
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Toronto Mayor's Only Crime Is Cutting Taxes
- Source, Schiff Radio:
Friday, December 6, 2013
Dennis "The Commodities King" vs. Peter "Dr. Doom" Schiff
- Source, Schiff Radio:
How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes Hardcover Collectors Edition by Peter Schiff
In this Collector's Edition of their celebrated How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes, Peter Schiff, economic expert and bestselling author of Crash Proof and The Real Crash, once again teams up with his brother Andrew to spin a lively economic fable that untangles many of the fallacies preventing people from really understanding what drives an economy. The 2010 original has been described as a “Flintstones” take economics that entertainingly explains the beauty of free markets. The new edition has been greatly expanded in both quantity and quality. A new introduction and two new illustrated chapters bring the story up to date, and most importantly, the book makes the jump from black and white to full and vivid color.
With the help of colorful cartoon illustrations, lively humor, and deceptively simple storytelling, the Schiff's bring the complex subjects of inflation, monetary policy, recession, and other important topics in economics down to Earth. The story starts with three guys on an island who barely survive by fishing barehanded. Then one enterprising islander invents a net, catches more fish, and changes the island’s economy fundamentally. Using this story the Schiffs apply their signature take-no-prisoners logic to expose the glaring fallacies and gaping holes permeating the global economic conversation. The Collector’s Edition:
- Provides straight answers about how economies work, without relying on nonsensical jargon and mind-numbing doublespeak the experts use to cover up their confusion
- Includes a new introduction that sets the stage for developing a deeper, more practical understanding of inflation and the abuses of the monetary system
- Adds two new chapters that dissect the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative easing policies and the European Debt Crisis.
- Colorizes the original book's hundreds of cartoon illustrations. The improved images, executed by artist Brendan Leach from the original book, add new vigor to the presentation
- Has a larger format that has been designed to fit most coffee tables.
While the story may appear simple on the surface, as told by the Schiff brothers, it will leave you with a deep understanding of How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes.
- Purchase this book on Amazon here:
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Market Crash 2014
- Source, The London Real:
Monday, December 2, 2013
Peter Schiff - Another Bubble Set to Burst
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