Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Volcker Dies as Inflation Comes Back to Life


Today the Federal Reserve had its last official meeting of the year. And, as was widely expected, the Federal Reserve was unanimous in their decision not to cut interest rates. 

They didn't even consider hiking interest rates, but they decided not to cut them any further for now. So, they're on a pause. The short-term rates are now 1.5%. 

The target is 1.5% to 1.75%, and the idea is that the Fed is going to remain there for some time. Now, I don't really think it is going to be that long before they cut rates.

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Destroying Savings Doesn't Create Jobs


What rallies the market is not the rumor of an actual trade deal but the rumors of a phony trade deal - a phase 1 deal which really isn't a deal at all. In fact, to the extent that anybody is even celebrating phase 1, what they really celebrating is that the trade war is over. 

That Donald Trump has basically surrendered without admitting that he has surrendered. In fact a lot of the talk about what the Chinese even need to get the phase 1 deal is for all of the tariffs to be removed. 

Not just cancelling the future tariffs, but to take away all the tariffs that are already there, which, of course would be a relief for the American consumer, who, contrary to Donald Trump's claim, they're the ones who pay the tax - not the Chinese.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Peter Schiff: It's Bad Monetary Policy Not a Good Economy


We had record high closes today in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite; the Dow Jones not quite a new record but still up better than 300 points: 301.13 to be precise. 

Of course, all of the headlines, and President Trump - they're going to be claiming that the reason that we had these surging stock prices is because we had a stronger than expected jobs report. 

We got the October nonfarm payroll that came out this morning and it was better than was expected. You had Larry Kudlow out there talking about how this is a fantastic jobs report. 

It basically shows how we have this great economy; the greatest economy in the history of America, and that's the reason that the stock market is making record highs, because we have this great economy.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Powell Admits Inflation Is Headed Much Higher


As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. This is the third rate cut of this cycle. We're now down to 1.5%. 

But of course, what everybody has to remember is a year ago, when the Fed was hiking interest rates, the forecast from the Fed was that they were going to continue to hike rates. 

They were supposed to have another 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2019. And, of course, a year ago, as the Fed was hiking rates, they were still shrinking their balance sheet and they were going to continue to shrink it. They were talking about auto-pilot. 

They were going to continue to do $50 billion/month of quantitative tightening. And they said this with a straight face. And everybody believed them.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Monday, November 11, 2019

Peter Schiff: We've Never Seen Anything Like This Before


Peter Schiff discusses how the Federal Reserve plays an integral role in the economic recessions of the past. 

Peter covers cause and effect, and how different functions of the markets, politics, national debt, and central banks influence and shape the future of the world economy. 

He also gives insight on where he sees the economy heading, and how his prediction is likely to pass in the near future.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Peter Schiff: The Dollar is Going to Get Killed


Money manager Peter Schiff says, ““It’s more politically expedient to take the printing route, especially because nobody believes they are going to destroy the currency. 

They think they are going to print enough money to reduce the value of the debt enough to make everything go away. 

It’s like trying to get a little bit pregnant, which is impossible to do. So, once they start monetizing debt in that way, then that’s it. The dollar is going to get killed. 

That’s where we are headed. That’s the only thing that hasn’t happened yet. Gold has broken out. Gold is over $1,500 per ounce, and it is hitting record highs in most currencies. 

Not in the dollar, yet. The dollar is still relatively strong against other fiat currencies, but the fact it is this weak against gold shows you there is a lot of underlying weakness in the dollar that has yet to manifest, but that is going to happen. When the dollar starts to fall, that’s going to take the bond market down with it.

- Source, USA Watchdog

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Peter Schiff: How Government Inflated the Student Loan Bubble


As I surmised, when I recorded my podcast on Wednesday, it seems pretty clear that the Federal Reserve has already returned to quantitative easing. 

And that didn't take long, because they just ended QT (quantitative tightening) and they've already begun QE. Although, the Fed is not going to admit that that's what they're doing. 

Apart from proving me right, which was one of my forecasts from the very beginning, even before the Fed was talking about ending QE, I said they could never end it before they even started it.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Peter Schiff: Gold and Silver Market Manipulation Explained


Peter Schiff discusses JP Morgan precious metals traders charged with manipulating gold and silver futures.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Peter Schiff: Gold to Decouple from Treasuries


It was pretty quiet today in the equity markets; the Dow Jones managed to inch up 37 points, closing at 27,219 but, you know, how we're less than 200 points away from a new all-time record high in the Dow Jones.

But the real action today was in the bond market. If you're suspicious on this Friday the 13th, and you were looking for bad luck, that's where you would have found it, if you were long the bond market. 

Now, I've been talking about this bond market bubble for a long time - it's been inflating for a long time. 

Whether or not it's actually popped, well, we'll have to wait a little longer to find out. But the carnage in the bond market that I mentioned on my last podcast has continued, with bonds continuing to suffer.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Peter Schiff: QE by Any Other Name Still Stinks


A lot has actually happened since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. I want to start with what happened today and then work backwards. First of all the big news of the day is the Federal Reserve did exactly what the markets expected and reduced interest rates by a quarter point...

- Source, Peter Schiff

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Peter Schiff: Why Donald Trump Won’t Win the Next Election


Donald Trump is unlikely to win the next election if a recession were to hit by 2020, said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. 

“I think that Trump is likely to lose the next election because I think the U.S. economy can easily be in recession,” Schiff told Kitco News.

- Source, Kitco News

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Kitco News: Could Bitcoin's Biggest Convert Be Peter Schiff?


The cyrptocurrency community may not be getting a new recruit from Peter Schiff after all. The CEO of Euro Pacific Capital said that bitcoin is “overhyped, digital nothing” and he doesn’t plan on buying any in the foreseeable future. 

“I think it’s funny that the people in the bitcoin community are creating this fake news story that somehow I’m now a convert and I’m a secret bitcoin hot alert. 

There’s nothing secret about it, yes, I’ve been gifted some bitcoin, so what? I’ve never actually purchased any, nor do I actually intend to purchase any bitcoin,” he said. 

In fact, Schiff said he wants to convert bitcoin investors to gold. “I want to help people make the conversion from fool’s gold into real gold,” he said.

- Source, Kitco News

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Is Bitcoin the Future of Money? Peter Schiff VS Erik Voorhees


The Soho Forum hosted a debate between Erik Voorhees, the CEO of ShapeShift, and Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. 

The proposition: "Bitcoin, or a similar form of cryptocurrency, will eventually replace governments' fiat money as the preferred medium of exchange."

- Source, Reason TV

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Peter Schiff: Why Would Any Country Store Its Gold in the US?


Peter Schiff discussing Poland's attempt to withdraw its gold reserves from Britain, Britain's refusal to return Venezuela's gold, and why the U.S. is an even more dangerous place to store gold.

Friday, August 2, 2019

Central Banks Will Unleash Inflation and Gold is Headed Above $5000


Longer-term, gold prices are headed much higher than current levels and could even go to $5,000 an ounce, this according to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. 

“I do think that this is the beginning of the breakout of the consolidation that we’ve been in for the last several years, but ultimately I think gold’s going to go quite a bit higher than $5,000,” Schiff told Kitco News.

- Source, Kitco News

Thursday, July 25, 2019

The FED is Trying to Get The Stock Market Bubble Inflated

Jerome Powell took center stage last week and the Federal Reserve chair didn’t do anything to dampen expectations of a rate cut. His comments sent both stocks and gold higher.

Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust with University of Amherst economics professor Richard Wolff to talk about the Fed and its impact on the markets. Pete said no matter what the Fed does, a recession is coming.

Peter opened the interview saying the main reason the Fed is cutting rates is to try to keep the air from coming out of the stock market bubble.

"The other reason is they’re trying to keep this so-called expansion going. There they’re going to fail. I think we’re headed for recession regardless of what the Fed does with rates. The only thing the Fed is going to succeed in doing is reviving inflation. The Fed claims inflation is too low and they want to make sure the rate goes up. Well, that’s going to be their only success. But unfortunately, that’s also going to be their biggest failure.”

Wolff agreed with Peter’s view that a downturn is coming, noting that we are overdue for a recession. He said the sudden dovish turn by the Fed is a “desperate move” by to try to postpone the downturn until after the 2020 election.

The host mentioned a tweet Peter put out during Powell’s trip to Capitol Hill.


Peter said he never heard the question asked, but it would have been a great way to put Powell on the spot and ask him if he agrees with the president.

"The president tweets every day that we have the strongest economy in history, which isn’t even close to being true. But clearly, Powell doesn’t believe that the economy is the strongest in history, because if he did, he’d be raising rates, not cutting them.”

Peter said this isn’t even a good economy.

"It’s a bubble. Powell doesn’t seem to understand that. He seems to think the economy is doing OK. It’s not. The economy today is in worse shape than it was before it collapsed in 2008. 

The Fed inflated a much bigger bubble this time than it did last time. And yes, the longer we succeed in kicking the can down the road, the greater the imbalances grow as a result of this bubble, and the more painful it is when the air comes out. And that’s what’s going to happen. 

And what’s going to be so much worse about the coming recession is that it’s going to be inflationary. We’re going to have stagflation except it’s going to be a recession, not just stagnation, and the inflation rate is going to be far higher than it was the last time we had stagflation, which was in the 1970s.”

There was also a discussion about Fed “independence” and Pres. Trump’s efforts to bully Powell into cutting rates. Wolff called it “extraordinary theater.” Peter said Fed independence has always been a pretense.

"It was created to be independent, but it has actually acted as an arm of government. To the extent that we can no longer maintain that pretense, that is a very dangerous position to be in. But I agree with Trump that the Fed is doing a bad job — but because they didn’t keep raising rates. Rates are still much too low. The Fed needs to raise interest rates. 

The Fed needs to allow this expansion to come to an end because it’s unhealthy. It’s a bubble. The Fed has to let the stock market go down, let the real estate market go down, let the bond market go down, and force the US government to cut spending. 

That’s what needs to happen. But by keeping interest rates artificially low, they support increased government spending, they support these asset bubbles that are undermining the real economy and that are laying the foundation for the next economic crisis which will be much worse than the last one and for which there will be no bailouts.”

Peter was also asked about Powell’s take on the gold standard.

"Well, the chairman’s response is typical. If we were on a gold standard, he’d be out of a job.”
He went on to explain that the economy actually fared much better under a gold standard. But it was the US that ultimately took the world off the gold standard and put it on a dollar standard.

This coming dollar collapse is going to bring the world back onto the gold standard. Because when they reject the dollar, they will embrace gold, and gold will once again serve as the primary reserve asset for currencies around the world.”

- Source, Schiff Gold

Saturday, July 20, 2019

We’re Heading for Recession No Matter What the Fed Does With Rates


You don't cut interest rates in a booming economy, you raise them. 

Peter Schiff discusses the record highs in the market and economy claimed by Trump and the Federal Reserve, but shows they don't actually believe what they say or they wouldn't be cutting interest rates. 

Their actions suggest they realize we're actually in a record bubble, and it's about to burst.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Peter Schiff's LIVE Bitcoin Challenge


If you think you can change my mind on Bitcoin, here’s your chance. Bring your best argument and be prepare to defend it...

- Source, Peter Schiff

Monday, July 8, 2019

Peter Schiff: Inflation is going to run out of control, the dollar will suffer


Money manager Peter Schiff predicts, “Inflation is going to run out of control. This is why people need to buy gold. Paper currencies are going to lose a tremendous amount of value. 

So, if you want to preserve your purchasing power of your savings, you better be saving real money and not all this funny money the central banks create.

Once the market perceives that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, that we are never going back to normal, that interest rates are going to stay negative in real terms forever, that the Fed has no ability to raise rates, that all the new money that has been created will never be destroyed, that the Fed balance sheet will grow in perpetuity so liquidity will never be removed, then the dollar will fall through the floor. 

Then we are going to get all that inflation.” Schiff is predicting another bull market in gold and silver. Schiff says, “If we are going to have another bull market in gold, which we will and it’s probably already starting, we are going to have a bull market in silver. 

I don’t think we have ever had a gold bull market that didn’t include silver. In every gold bull market, silver has outperformed gold (on a percentage basis). So, there is a lot of upside in silver.

- Source, USA Watchdog

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Only Peter Schiff forecast the final rate hike before it happened


Watch Peter Schiff nail the Fed's final rate hike two days before it was made. 

At the time no else on Wall Street saw this coming, and to this day no one else understands the significance of why Peter was right and what it portends for the future. 

While I alone believed the Fed was done raising rates, and that they would soon reverse course and cut rates, I also believed cutting rates would be a mistake.

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Peter Schiff: More Fed Heroin for the Addicts on Wall Street


Last week, the Dow gained 4.7% and other stock indices followed the upward trend, snapping a six-week losing streak. So, what drove the market up? Was it great earnings reports?

Not really. There were a few companies that posted solid earnings reports, but nothing earthshaking.

Was it good economic data?

Nope. In fact, most of the news was bad. Most significantly, the non-farm payroll number for May came in at just 75,000 jobs. The projections had been for about 180,000 jobs. Peter pointed out that if you average the last three months, job growth comes to about 150,000 jobs per month.

Pretty anemic job growth, especially if you’re claiming you’re the jobs president and we have the strongest economy in the history of the country.”

Peter also noted that the economy is creating the same type of lousy part-time and low-paying jobs it was creating when Obama was president.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed lowered its GDP growth estimate both for Q2 and Q3.


The bottom line is we got much weaker than expected jobs growth. We got weaker economic data. We have downward revisions to GDP growth from the New York Fed. Yet the US stock market is soaring. Why?”

One thing has happened. That’s the Fed.

The Federal Reserve has changed on a dime and has done what I’ve been saying they would do for years. In fact, I said they would do this from the very beginning. And that is they have completely abandoned any pretense of normalizing interest rates or shrinking their balance sheet. The Fed is about to cut interest rates again.”

Consider this. That would mean the peak of this interest rate cycle was 2.5%.

That’s not exactly “normal.”

Why is the Fed going to have to cut interest rates? To prevent the bubble from deflating, to prevent the bubble economy from returning to recession.”

And this is exactly why we saw this boost in the stock market last week. The addict is giddy at the mere thought of a fix.

It’s only because the Fed is going to give the heroin addicts on Wall Street more of the heroin, this is why the market is going up. That is why the bond market is going up. That is why rates are falling, because the bond market thinks the Fed is going to work its magic one more time. It’s going to slash interest rates. It’s going to force-feed cheap money into the economy. It’s going to do quantitative easing. And it’s going to be a party in the bond market. It’s going to be a party on Wall Street. Except inflation is going to crash that party. A dollar collapse is going to crash that party.”

Peter said the only reason all of this monetary stimulus worked the last time was because everybody believed it was an emergency measure, that it was temporary, that it would be undone, that there was an exit strategy.

Everything the Fed has been saying for the past 10 years about its exit strategy, about its ability to normalize interest rates — everything they said was a lie.”

The Fed continues to insist that the economy is strong, but Peter said you need to keep your focus on what the central bank is actually doing.

The fact that they’re about to cut interest rates proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the economy is weak, that any strength is artificial. It’s a result of the cheap money and they need more cheap money to maintain the illusion of economic growth.”

Peter has always said that levering up the economy is the easy part.

If you can’t remove the policy without the economy relapsing into recession, then the economy was a failure … The easy thing to do was to get hooked on drugs. The hard part, or the impossible part, was kicking the habit. That’s what the Fed can’t do.”


- Source, Schiff Gold

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Peter Schiff: The Fed Created an Uber Problem


The U.S. stock markets finished off the worst week of the year with a gain despite the fact that, as expected, the trade talks between the United States and China broke down today, and no deal. 

The new tariffs went into effect at 12:01am this morning. Despite the fact that Trump is now retaliating by escalating the trade war, he still claims that the discussions are going well, that they are making a lot of progress. 

None of that makes any sense. If things are going well, and you're making progress, you don't escalate the war. That makes no sense. All that is going to do is piss off the Chinese. So, if everything is going so well, you would not want to do that.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Peter Schiff: ZIRP and QE Are Now Conventional Monetary Policy


There's been a lot of volatility in the stock market since I recorded my last podcast on Friday. In fact, on Monday, the tech stocks in particular got beaten up. 

The NASDAQ dropped by better than 150 points, led lower by the so-called FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google). Google and Facebook, the biggest drop - I think it was something like 6-8%. Part of that had to do with the Justice Department investigating Google.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Friday, June 14, 2019

Monday, June 10, 2019

Peter Schiff: Game Over For The FED


The Dow Jones soared 263 points today, although at one point the index was up better than 350 points. But it managed to finish the week with a 4.7% gain. 

That is the best showing for the Dow Jones Industrials in 6 months and in fact we snapped a six-week losing streak this week. All of the major averages had positive weeks. 

The NASDAQ - the best gainer on the day; up 1.7% - not quite as strong on the week because it took a shellacking on Monday with the FANG stocks leading the way down - but up about 3.7% on the week. Similar gains for the Russell 2000, the Dow Transports, the S&P 500 not quite as strong as the Dow - I think up about 4.2% on the week.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Monday, May 27, 2019

Peter Schiff: More upward pressure for oil market that's already going up


Peter Schiff on RT discussing Iran, Crude Oil Prices, OPEC, Dollar, Gas Prices, Donald Trump, Interest rates, Inflation, Federal Reserve, Rate Hikes, Saudi Arabia, Russia, currency.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Peter Schiff: What's Going On With The GDP?


The Commerce Department released the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth on Friday. It came in higher than expected at 3.2%.

Somewhat surprisingly, the price of gold rose on the news and the dollar showed some weakness. The primary reason was presumably lower inflation. This means the Fed still has the excuse it needs to continue the Powell Pause.

There was also some data in the Commerce Department's report that reveals shakiness in that growth number. In fact, Peter Schiff said he thinks this will likely be the strongest growth of the year.

An increase in inventories helped drive Q1 growth. This isn't necessarily a positive trend. It could mean that consumers aren't buying, causing inventories to pile up. In fact, final sales to domestic purchasers increased by only 1.4%. That represents the smallest increase in more than three years.

Trade numbers also helped boost growth. Trade deficits were lower in Q1. Trade deficits were high in the last half of 2018. Peter said he thinks that's because a lot of companies front-loaded shipments late last year in an effort to avoid tariffs.

Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics said, "Under those circumstances, we continue to expect that overall growth will slow this year, forcing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before year-end."

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Friday, May 17, 2019

Peter Schiff: Of Course You Know, This Means War


As I suspected on Friday's podcast, the 400-point reversal that saw the Dow move from down 300 points + to up 100 points on the close was in fact, reversed today, and the Dow Jones actually closed below the Friday low, which is a huge negative, technically for the index. 

The Dow was down 617 points; that's about 2.4 %. But the real carnage was in the NASDAQ. That was down 3.4%. The Russell 2000 also down better than 3% - 3.2%, showing that domestically focused stocks are actually getting hit harder than the multi-nationals.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Thursday, May 9, 2019

Peter Schiff: Raise the Voting Age, Not the Smoking Age


I hope everybody enjoyed their Easter holiday, in fact, today is Easter Monday, so many parts of the world are still celebrating, including here in Puerto Rico. 

We are still in the holiday of Passover, so hopefully everybody who celebrates Passover, myself included, is still enjoying that holiday. 

In fact, this year, the first night of Passover coincided with Good Friday; a rare occasion that unites the two religions. We generally end up celebrating both.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Sunday, May 5, 2019

Peter Schiff: April Fools Day Comes Late


Tax Day, or as my father, Irwin Schiff used to say, "April Fool's Day". My father thought it was April Fool's Day because he believed that that was the day on which Americans basically voluntarily paid a tax that no law required them to pay and voluntarily filed a 1040 tax form that no law required them to file. 

Of course, my father ultimately went to jail and died and jail because of those beliefs. I have been paying my taxes, although now that I live in Puerto Rico it's not nearly as painful as it used to be when I lived in Connecticut.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Peter Schiff: Political Theater of the Absurd


I began yesterday's podcast by pointing out the weakness in shares of the recent IPO of Lyft. 

In fact, I mentioned that Friday's close above the IPO price (the first time it closed above that price since the day of the IPO) the fact that it couldn't hold on to that rally, I thought that meant the stock looked even weaker, technically. 

And we got a big follow through today. Lyft sank about 11%, it closed near the lows of the day, 60.12. In fact, we did trade as low as 59.75 on the closing minutes of trading. 

We're now down about 32% from the opening print, after it went IPO on that day. 

We're 17-18% below the IPO price. If you happen to get the IPO price and you still have the stock, you're almost in a bear market from that purchase price.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Trump Puts QE4 in Play


Stock market in the U.S. continued to grind higher today, although I still believe that this is a bear market rally. The Dow added a little better than 40 points; the NASDAQ up about 47, so a bigger percentage gain there. 

The S&P was up about 13 points. This was following the release of the March Nonfarm Payrolls numbers - aka the Jobs Report. There was a lot of hope that we would see a rebound in the month of March. 

Remember, in February, they initially reported just 20,000 jobs created, which was well short of what had been expected. It was probably something close to 200,000 jobs. 

And the consensus for March was for 170,000 jobs and we actually got 196,000 jobs.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Peter Schiff: Democracy has Failed, Not Capitalism


I agree that wealth inequality is a problem, but it is a problem that is created by government - created by the Federal Reserve. 

I was warning years ago, when the Federal Reserve first launched Quantitative Easing, that this was going to happen! 

This policy would only benefit assets at the expense of the overall economy. I've been warning about this for years. The government is doing this, not the market. 

So, yes, I want the government to do something about wealth inequality by getting out of the way. I want Capitalism to do something about inequality. 

Now, of course, there's always going to be inequality - that's part of capitalism. 

People are not going to be equal, because peoples' contributions are not equal. 

What is not normal right now is the extent of the disparity. That extreme inequality is not a function of Capitalism. If we enjoyed Capitalism, there would be less inequality.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Friday, April 12, 2019

Peter Schiff: US Economy Not As Strong As Wall Street and the MSM Pretend


Economist Peter Schiff joins me to talk about assertions that he’s “bad for TV”, Jerome Powell’s recent rate capitulation, the state of the gold market, why he thinks the gold standard will eventually come back, why the dollar will collapse, the sorry ass state of the financial media, the Joe Rogan podcast and his take on Trump and the Russian collusion story.

- Source, Quoth the Raven

Monday, April 8, 2019

We're Not Borrowing Ourselves Rich, We're Borrowing Ourselves Broke

Peter Schiff has been saying that despite the recent stock market rally and all of the optimism about an end to the trade war, a recession is a done deal. There is plenty of economic data to back up despite the recent economic growth. In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said that while the GDP number might look pretty good, the growth is unsustainable because it's all built on debt.

Last week, we got the first look at Q4 GDP. It came in slightly stronger-than-expected with a rise of 2.6%, on an annual basis. That compares to trade expectations of a rise of around 2.2%. If that holds, total 2018 GDP may well come in at Trump's target of 3%. This would be the biggest GDP number since 2005.

But Peter put this into a little different perspective. Consider this: in 2005, the national debt increased by $554 billion. That borrowing "purchased" 3.5% economic growth. In fiscal 2018, the national debt increased by $1.27 trillion. That's more than double the debt increase of 2005.

So, we had to add a lot more debt in 2018 to buy not as much growth as a much smaller amount of debt in 2005. So, the takeaway from that is this is unsustainable because the growth came at a heavy cost. We had to increase the amount of debt that we had by a lot more than the percentage that the economy grew."

And of course, it's not just government debt. Household debt is also at record levels.

As Peter put it, "We're not richer because of this economic growth."

If your debt is growing faster than your economy, then you're not getting richer. You're getting poorer. You would have been better off without the debt and without the growth … We're borrowing ourselves into poverty. We're not borrowing ourselves rich. We're borrowing ourselves broke."

There's another problem with the growth in Q4 2018. It may well have come at the expense of growth in Q1 2019. Mike Maharrey talked about this in last week's Friday Gold Wrap podcast, noting that US wholesale inventories posted their largest gain in more than five years. Inventories are factored into GDP. That likely gave Q4 a boost. But a pileup of goods in warehouses means people aren't buying.

The consumer spending number for December released last week bears this out. It was down 0.5.

Meanwhile, personal income was up. This could mean Americans are saving. If so, it would be the first time that's happened at this level since the Great Recession.

Analysts are trying to figure out what the numbers mean. Peter had a pretty simple explanation. Americans have stopped spending because they're broke.

They've already borrowed so much money to pay for the spending of the past that they're just done. That expression, 'Shop 'till you drop,' well, maybe a lot of Americans have finally dropped and they're no longer shopping."

This could be a bad sign that Americans are at the end of their rope...


- Source, Seeking Alpha

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Peter Schiff: Powell Puts It to Congress



This year Fed chairman Jerome Powell made his obligatory visit to Capital Hill, where he spoke to Senators and Representatives about monetary policy.


Of course, this really just amounts to a press conference for Democrats and Republicans to either talk up the economy or talk down the economy, depending on who's got the White House. 

Trump is the President, so you have a lot of Democrats trying to talk about why the economy is actually weak and trying to get the Fed Chairman to say something negative about the economy, or negative about President Trump. 

And, of course you have the Republicans trying to get Powell to validate how great the economy is, and how Trump's policies are helping the economy.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Peter Schiff: Are Debt Laden Consumers Finally Tapped Out?


The Dow Jones started off the final day of the week with a pretty strong rally; we were up a little better than 200 points earlier in the day. Then we got some weaker than expected economic data which I will get to a bit later, and the market sold off. 

The Dow never quite went negative, and then we rallied back and the Dow managed to end the week back above 26,000 with a 110 point gain. In fact all of the major indexes were positive on the day. 

What caused the early morning rally was optimism, once again, that a trade deal with China is about to be signed, and it's kind of amazing how often the markets can bite on this and keep rallying on regurgitated news, because, we've heard this before.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Friday, March 22, 2019

Peter Schiff: Fed's Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words



I want to spend my limited time on today's podcast talking about the Federal Reserve's decision today and the press conference. I did get back on the boat in time to watch the press conference live, and I do want to limit today's podcast to that discussion. 


Before the Fed announced its decision on interest rates - nobody expected a rate hike, and we did not get a rate hike, but before the Fed announced today's decision, the markets were on the defensive. 

Earlier in the day, Donald Trump had mentioned that he now thinks that the tariffs on Chinese imports, or on Americans who want to buy Chinese imports, may remain in effect for a much longer period of time; indicating that maybe this great trade deal is not as close as the President was letting on in the past.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Saturday, March 2, 2019

Peter Schiff: The Powell Put is Driving the Markets Higher

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee met Wednesday and held interest rates steady in the 2.25-2.50% range. This wasn't really a surprise. More significantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept up the dovish rhetoric, saying, "The case for rate increases has diminished. I would need to see a reason for further rate hikes that would have to include higher inflation."

We've called this the Powell Put, and it appears it's still solidly in play. But in his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff called it the "Powell Pause" and said it wasn't going to be enough.

But for now, the markets are pleased.

The Dow pushed above 25,000 on Wednesday's Fed news. As Peter put it, "The monetary drug pushers at the Federal Reserve gave the addicts on Wall Street exactly the fix that they had been craving."

The FOMC removed language from its December policy statement that risks to the outlook were "roughly balanced." It also struck out language that projected "some further" rate hikes would be appropriate in 2019. In effect, it appears rate hikes are officially on pause.

Powell also said the Fed's balance sheet reduction was no longer on "auto-pilot," and basically admitted that the Fed would only follow through with tightening if it could do so without upsetting the markets.

As Peter Schiff said in a tweet, "That's impossible!"

If the Fed doesn't want to upset the markets, soon it will be forced to go back to QE and zero percent interest rates."

I think that soon the markets are going to be demanding a lot more from the Fed than just a cessation of rate hikes and a commitment not to shrink the balance sheet. I think what the addicts are going to require is going to be more quantitative easing and a return to zero, and that is exactly what the Federal Reserve is going to provide once it realizes that's what's necessary."

But Peter said he doesn't think it's going to work. In fact, he thinks it's going to create the overdose he's been warning about since the Fed went down the policy road after the 2008 crash.

The Federal Reserve wants to pretend everything in the economy is still great. The central bankers are saying everything is still as strong as it was when they were talking about three or four rate hikes in 2019 and saying balance sheet reduction was on autopilot.

Now here we are just a few months later. Nothing has actually changed with the overall economy. Yes, we had a government shutdown; the government shutdown is over. Not that big a deal. I mean, there has been weak economic data, but there's been weak economic data that the Fed has been ignoring the entire time … The only thing that's really changed between the September meeting and today is a bear market in stocks. The bear market that happened in the fourth quarter of last year and the acceleration of the downtrend that accompanied the last rate hike the Fed delivered in December. That's the only substantive difference between now and then. And that's the only reason the Federal Reserve has done a complete 180 when it comes to monetary policy."

The Fed wants to help the stock market and the economy. But the last thing it wants to do is admit the stock market or the economy needs help.

So, it has to manufacture some kind of BS reason to explain this 180-degree flip in policy. And basically what Powell was saying was it had to do with the uncertainty in the global economy."

But as Peter said, the condition of the global economy hasn't changed all that much since September.

Powell also talked about the absence of inflation as a reason to be "patient" on future rate hikes. But is there really any evidence that inflation is absent? As Peter pointed out, a lot of the downtrend in inflationary pressure had to do with the falling price of oil. But oil was falling based on the expectation of central bank monetary tightening and a strengthening dollar - in essence, a policy that never came to pass. Oil is already starting to climb again.

Ben Bernanke once said one of the main reasons central banks don't want to leave interest rates too low for too long is that it will lead to inflation. Well, interest rates have never been this low for this long!

We are staring down the barrels of the worst inflation threat in US history, yet all of a sudden, Powell said that over the last few months, he's no longer worried. Even though we've had these low interest rates - zero percent interest rates for six years or whatever, and then we had them at half-a-percent, one percent, even though we've had all of this money printing over the last decade, something that happened in the last few months. all of a sudden, a Federal Reserve that was worried about inflation because of all the money we've created, how long interest rates have been kept at zero, all of a sudden those worries are no longer there based on the last few months? What happened the last few months?"

The truth is, it's all about the stock market. Make no mistake, if Powell had said the Fed was going to push forward with interest rate normalization and continue shrinking the balance sheet, the stock market would have sold off Wednesday and the bear market would have been back with a vengeance.

The Powell Put, or Powell Pause, or whatever you want to call it has sparked a little bear market rally. But it won't likely last. The real question is then what?

- Source, Peter Schiff via Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Peter Schiff: The Real National Emergency Isn't At The Border, It's The Debt


"Just because we haven't suffered a crisis - yet- based on this debt doesn't mean that one isn't coming. In fact, there's no way around it. It's just a question of when. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when, and I think when is a lot closer than a lot of people think."

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Thursday, February 14, 2019

The Ultimate Gold Panel Forecast for 2019


The Ultimate Gold Panel gets into a deep discussion about the future of Gold based on historical analysis and current economic trends. This is a must-watch for any investor who is serious about profiting from gold.

- Source, Schiff Gold

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Fed Capitulation Is Just The First Piece Of The Puzzle


Not too long ago, it was on autopilot, they were just going to leave it alone and it was going to keep on going and then the market started to cave and then they change that to, well, we're data dependent and now the market starts to go down a little bit more and all of a sudden we're almost done.

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Fed Capitulation is the Beginning of the End


Peter Schiff is the President & CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, an SEC-Registered Investment Adviser and a full service broker/dealer. 

He is one of the few widely known economists and investment professionals to have warned about the financial crisis before it began.

- Source, Cambridge House

Friday, February 1, 2019

Peter Schiff: Powell Pause Won't be Enough


Earlier today, the monetary drug pushers at the Federal Reserve gave the addicts on Wall Street exactly the fix that they have been craving. 

In fact, not only did Powell deliver exactly what the doctor ordered with respect to interest rates, saying the Fed was going to remain "patient", probably indefinitely, with respect to another rate hike, but Powell also made it clear that the balance sheet wind-down, otherwise known as quantitative tightening, was off of auto-pilot. 

In fact, based on what Powell said, I would be surprised to see any significant reductions in the Fed's balance sheet from here. Not surprising, the market rallied as a result of getting what they wanted out of the Fed.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Peter Schiff: The Dovish Fed Won't Fly


Another big move today in the U.S. stock market except this time the big move was to the upside, more than eradicating yesterday's big decline. 

In fact, looking back historically, yesterday's drop was the second biggest drop in history for the second day of the New Year. 

The biggest drop on the second day of a new year was in the year 2000. That was the year when the NASDAQ bubble originally popped. 

That big drop happened at a time where the market was peaking and we were just beginning a bear market where the U.S. stock market went down by about half and the NASDAQ went down by abut 80%. So not a good comparison.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Friday, January 18, 2019

Peter Schiff: This Is The Beginning Of A Much Bigger Crisis


"It's not a volatile economy, it's a bubble economy. Thanks to the Federal Reserve, they inflated an even bigger bubble, on purpose, than the one they inflated by accident that popped in 2008. 

And so the economy is in much worse shape structurally today than it was before it fell apart the last time. 

So, this is the beginning of a much greater crisis, of a much greater recession than the one that we experienced back in 2008."

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Monday, January 14, 2019

Peter Schiff: Markets Running out of Good News to Anticipate


U.S. stocks continue their correction by moving higher yet again today. 

Remember, when you have a bull market, the corrections are down, because you're correcting the upward trend by moving backward. In a bear market, it's the opposite. 

You correct a downward trend by retracing upwards. That's what we're doing now. I think this is the first rally in this bear market, so this rally is, in fact, a correction.

- Source, Peter Schiff

Friday, January 11, 2019

The Deflating Bubble Economy Could Swing in Gold’s Favor


The markets are looking shakier and shakier with each passing day. 

Geopolitics continue to break down and the bubble economy looks like it could pop.

Will it? Or will it continue to inflate, leading ultimately to a larger collapse?

- Video Source, Peter Schiff

Saturday, January 5, 2019

Joe Rogan and Peter Schiff Discuss the Lack of Value in a College Degree


Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Joe Rogan and Schiff discuss the value, or lack of value in a getting a college degree in today's day and age.

- Source, Joe Rogan

Wednesday, January 2, 2019